Plumbline Risk

Sample, not a real book. This is what a founding partner gets back within 48 hours of sending a list of postal prefixes. The 25 risks here are invented, so the numbers prove nothing about anyone's portfolio. The format, the ranking logic and the caveats are exactly what you would receive. ← Back to Plumbline Risk

Submission ranking

25 risks scored and ranked worst to best · 2026-08-04 · decision-support output, not a quote or a declination

Read this first. Wildfire comes from BC Wildfire Service PSTA fire threat rating, 2021, keyed to the first three characters of the postal code, for 10 of the 25 risks here. Earthquake comes from NRCan 6th generation seismic hazard model (GSC Open File 8950), Sa(0.2) at 2% in 50 years, site class C, scaled so Vancouver reaches the catastrophe referral threshold, keyed to the first three characters of the postal code, for 23 of the 25 risks here. Site class C is firm ground and understates soft-soil sites such as the Fraser delta, where liquefaction rather than shaking is the exposure. Flood, hail and convective storm and public fire protection grade are regional baselines everywhere, not surveyed property-level data. Anything not measured is a province and city average, and even a published layer describes relative threat rather than site-specific values, so treat the ordering as the output and the absolute numbers as indicative. 2 had no recognisable postal prefix.

The three I would look at hardest

1. Restaurant · V1Y · Kelowna, BC88.0 · RED

Wildfire exposure with hazardous occupancy and combustible construction. 2 high-severity flags raised alongside.

2. Auto Service · V1Z · West Kelowna, BC87.8 · RED

Wildfire exposure with combustible construction and hazardous occupancy. 2 high-severity flags raised alongside.

3. Hospitality · V2C · Kamloops, BC84.0 · RED

Wildfire exposure with prior loss history and hazardous occupancy. 1 high-severity flag raised alongside.

Worked example: how the top risk got there

What you told us

Location	V1Y resolved to Kelowna, BC
Occupancy	restaurant
Construction	frame
Year built	1968
Roof last replaced	1999
Storeys	1
Sprinklered	no
Declared TIV	$1,450,000
Losses in last 5 years	2

What we attached to it

Wildfire exposure	80 / 100
Flood exposure (regional estimate)	33.9 / 100
Hail exposure (regional estimate)	29.3 / 100
Earthquake exposure	14.1 / 100
Public fire protection (modelled proxy, not a published FUS grade)	5 of 10
Distance to hall (modelled)	3.1 km
Rebuild cost (footprint proxy, no floor area supplied)	$6,312,000

What each factor is worth here

Each figure is how far this risk's score would fall if that factor alone were fixed, with everything else unchanged. They are not shares of the score and do not sum to it: the score is a logistic curve, so the same factor is worth more on a marginal risk than on one that is already extreme.

Score 88.0 · RED

without wildfire exposure65.3 (-22.7)

without hazardous occupancy65.3 (-22.7)

without combustible construction69.5 (-18.5)

without prior loss history74.2 (-13.8)

without roof age78.9 (-9.1)

What would change the answer. If it turns out to be sprinklered, this scores 77.8 (-10.2), staying RED. If the roof had been replaced in the last five years, this scores 79.3 (-8.7), staying RED. Tell us any of these are wrong and the ranking changes accordingly. That is the point of showing the drivers.

Catastrophe exposure

8 of 25 risks sit in a severe exposure zone for at least one peril (wildfire 4, earthquake 4). The score answers how OFTEN a risk has a loss. It is fitted against loss frequency, it does not measure severity, and it knows nothing about how much of one peril you already carry in one place, so these are an aggregate question rather than an individual one.

2 of them score clean enough that frequency alone would have auto-quoted them. Those are the ones worth your attention here; the rest are already in amber or red and on someone's desk.

Warehouse · V6X · Richmond, BC18.8 · GREEN

Severe earthquake exposure. The score measures how OFTEN a risk has a loss; catastrophe is about how BAD one is, and how much of it you already carry in that area.

Office · V6B · Vancouver, BC5.2 · GREEN

Severe earthquake exposure. The score measures how OFTEN a risk has a loss; catastrophe is about how BAD one is, and how much of it you already carry in that area.

Full ranking

Drivers are listed in order of how much each moved the score. The word in brackets is how much of that factor the risk has, not how heavily it is weighted, so you can check it against what you already know about the address.

#	Location	Occupancy	Construction	TIV	Score	Band	Leading drivers	Flags
1	V1Y · Kelowna, BC	restaurant	frame	$1,450,000	88.0	RED	Wildfire exposure (high); Hazardous occupancy (high); Combustible construction (high)	cat wildfire fire load mismatch aged roof
2	V1Z · West Kelowna, BC	auto service	frame	$980,000	87.8	RED	Wildfire exposure (high); Combustible construction (high); Hazardous occupancy (high)	cat wildfire fire load mismatch aged roof
3	V2C · Kamloops, BC	hospitality	joisted masonry	$4,200,000	84.0	RED	Wildfire exposure (high); Prior loss history (high); Hazardous occupancy (moderate)	cat wildfire aged roof
4	V1X · Kelowna, BC	retail	frame	$1,600,000	81.5	RED	Wildfire exposure (high); Combustible construction (high); Prior loss history (high)	cat wildfire aged roof
5	V8W · Victoria, BC	hospitality	joisted masonry	$7,400,000	75.9	RED	Hazardous occupancy (moderate); Prior loss history (high); Combustible construction (moderate)	cat earthquake aged roof
6	N6A · London, ON	restaurant	joisted masonry	$890,000	73.1	RED	Hazardous occupancy (high); Flood exposure (high); Combustible construction (moderate)	aged roof
7	S7K · Saskatoon, SK	retail	frame	$1,150,000	62.6	RED	Combustible construction (high); Flood exposure (moderate); Roof age (high)	aged roof
8	T4N · Red Deer, AB	retail	frame	$1,320,000	60.3	RED	Combustible construction (high); Hail / convective storm (high); Flood exposure (moderate)	aged roof
9	R3C · Winnipeg, MB	wholesale	joisted masonry	$2,400,000	59.5	AMBER	Flood exposure (high); Combustible construction (moderate); Roof age (high)	aged roof
10	V7C · Richmond, BC	retail	frame	$2,100,000	54.6	AMBER	Flood exposure (high); Combustible construction (high); Earthquake exposure (high)	cat earthquake aged roof
11	T3A · Calgary, AB	habitational	frame	$5,600,000	54.3	AMBER	Combustible construction (high); Hazardous occupancy (moderate); Flood exposure (moderate)	aged roof
12	V2S · Abbotsford, BC	contractor	frame	$1,700,000	48.4	AMBER	Combustible construction (high); Flood exposure (high); Hazardous occupancy (moderate)	-
13	T9H · Fort McMurray, AB	light manufacturing	noncombustible	$8,900,000	31.0	GREEN	Wildfire exposure (high); Hazardous occupancy (moderate); Hail / convective storm (high)	-
14	H3B · Montreal, QC	habitational	fire resistive	$22,500,000	28.4	GREEN	Hazardous occupancy (moderate); Flood exposure (moderate); Prior loss history (moderate)	-
15	ON	retail	frame	$1,100,000	28.2	GREEN	Combustible construction (high); Flood exposure (moderate); Hazardous occupancy (low)	-
16	T2P · Calgary, AB	warehouse	joisted masonry	$6,300,000	22.5	GREEN	Flood exposure (moderate); Hail / convective storm (high); Hazardous occupancy (moderate)	-
17	V6X · Richmond, BC	warehouse	noncombustible	$12,800,000	18.8	GREEN cat referral	Flood exposure (high); Hazardous occupancy (moderate); Earthquake exposure (high)	cat earthquake
18	V2L · Prince George, BC	cannabis	noncombustible	$14,000,000	13.7	GREEN	Hazardous occupancy (high); Flood exposure (moderate); Wildfire exposure (low)	-
19	K1A · Ottawa, ON	office	noncombustible	$11,000,000	11.4	GREEN	Flood exposure (high); Wildfire exposure (low); Roof age (moderate)	-
20	B3J · Halifax, NS	office	masonry noncombustible	$9,100,000	10.6	GREEN	Flood exposure (high); Wildfire exposure (moderate); Roof age (moderate)	-
21	ON	warehouse	noncombustible	$5,000,000	10.4	GREEN	Flood exposure (moderate); Hazardous occupancy (moderate); Hail / convective storm (moderate)	-
22	L6Y · Brampton, ON	retail	masonry noncombustible	$3,750,000	8.5	GREEN	Flood exposure (moderate); Hazardous occupancy (low); Hail / convective storm (low)	-
23	G1R · Quebec City, QC	office	fire resistive	$18,000,000	8.2	GREEN	Flood exposure (high); Roof age (moderate); Earthquake exposure (moderate)	-
24	M5V · Toronto, ON	office	fire resistive	$28,000,000	5.4	GREEN	Flood exposure (moderate); Roof age (moderate); Hail / convective storm (moderate)	-
25	V6B · Vancouver, BC	office	fire resistive	$41,000,000	5.2	GREEN cat referral	Flood exposure (high); Earthquake exposure (high); Roof age (low)	cat earthquake

One column would add a check this review could not run. Floor area. With square footage the engine compares your declared value against a modelled rebuild cost at a rate for that occupancy, and flags the gaps. Without it the rebuild figure is a proxy, so nothing here makes a claim about your values at all. Add a column and send the same file back.

What the split looks like

8 red, 4 amber, 13 green. 8 risks raised at least one high-severity flag. The most common was cat wildfire, on 4 of them.

Every score is explainable: the drivers listed against each risk are the factors that moved it, in order. Disagree with any of them and the ranking is wrong and worth telling me about. This is decision support for an underwriter, not a rating engine, not a quote, and not a recommendation to decline. Prepared by Plumbline Risk, ryan@plumblinerisk.ca.