Plumbline Risk

Know which submissions deserve a closer look — before you bind.

Plumbline Risk scores commercial property submissions at intake, using Canadian hazard, fire-protection and valuation data. Every score shows its reasons.

How it works

1

Enrich

A submission arrives as an address and a handful of attributes. We attach wildfire, flood, hail and earthquake exposure, Fire Underwriters Survey protection grade, distance to hall, construction, and a modelled reconstruction cost.

2

Score and triage

A transparent model returns a 0–100 score and a green / amber / red band, with the specific drivers behind it. No black box — an underwriter can disagree with the reasoning, which is the point.

3

Flag adverse selection

Under-insurance against modelled rebuild cost, catastrophe exposure, aged roofs on combustible construction, and high fire-load occupancies in unsprinklered frame buildings — caught before they reach the rating engine.

What an underwriter sees

RiskScoreActionLeading driver
Restaurant, frame, Kelowna BC 87 · RED Refer / re-price Wildfire exposure; TIV below rebuild
Warehouse, masonry, Calgary AB 54 · AMBER Underwriter review Hail exposure; roof age
Office, fire-resistive, Toronto ON 5 · GREEN Auto-quote Sprinklered; strong protection grade

Illustrative output. Weights are fitted to each book's own loss experience rather than applied off the shelf.

Built for Canada

Most underwriting-automation tooling is built for the US market and adapted afterwards. We built the other way around — Canadian hazard geography, Fire Underwriters Survey protection grades, and Canadian construction and valuation assumptions.

That matters more than it used to. In 2025 Canada recorded its highest-ever number of declared fire catastrophes, and every one occurred in a province with no prior industry fire catastrophe on record. Appetite maps drawn from where wildfire losses used to happen were wrong last year.

Founding partner programme

A scoring model is only as good as the book it's calibrated on. Rather than ship generic weights, we're working with a small number of Canadian MGAs to fit and validate the model against real loss experience — and the first cohort gets the work at no cost.

What you provide: roughly 500 historical commercial property submissions with their loss outcomes.

What you receive: a portfolio review quantifying how much of your loss experience concentrates in the risks the model flags, and a scored file ranking every risk worst-first with the drivers and flags behind each one.

What it costs: nothing. We're trading the analysis for the chance to calibrate against genuine Canadian loss data.

Two questions come up before any of the others:

Turnaround is about a week from receiving the file. There is no obligation attached and nothing to sign — if the analysis isn't useful, that is a useful answer too.

Where this goes. If the review is useful and you want the engine scoring live submissions, that is a paid annual licence priced on your submission volume. Founding partners keep preferential terms. The review itself is free either way — we would rather prove the thing works on your book than describe it.

See the deliverable first

A sample portfolio review, run on a synthetic 500-risk book. This is the format your results arrive in.

View sample →

Put it to the test on your book

Send roughly 500 historical commercial property submissions with loss outcomes. We'll do the rest.

Start a portfolio review or email ryan@plumblinerisk.ca

About Plumbline Risk

Plumbline Risk is a Vancouver-based underwriting analytics firm. We build decision-support for Canadian commercial property, focused on the point in the workflow where the most margin is quietly lost and the least technology has been applied — intake.

Our scope is deliberately narrow. We don't replace underwriting judgment, and we don't ask you to move off your existing systems. We do one thing: turn an incoming submission into a scored, explained, triaged risk, using Canadian data, in seconds.

A plumb line is the reference a builder uses to check whether something is true. That is the job here — establishing what a risk actually is before it is priced.

The firm was founded by Ryan Teymourian, who built the scoring engine, the Canadian hazard data layer and the calibration tooling behind it.